Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b53…a656 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$101 (-1%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%9W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$5
politics 29% −$7
sports 18% −$94
economics 9% −$2
world 8% −$3
tech 4% +$24
crypto 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 +0.7% -8.8% 25% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -10.2%
all 42 -1.2% -10.6% 21% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -10.2%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$547) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses9 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage223d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $112 +$4 +3%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $941 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $947 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $947 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $951 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $951 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $106 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $536 −$89 -17%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $544 −$1 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 08 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $547 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 07 $547 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 07 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $549 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 07 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 16 $60 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meet Mar 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $60 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 20, 2026? Feb 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $118 +$2 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 6? Feb 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $57 +$2 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $115 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $117 −$2 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 14 $56 +$3 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $22 +$12 +56%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 30 $21 +$1 +4%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $21 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $110 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $112 24h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $112 40h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $110 40h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $110 41h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $111 41h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $111 42h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $112 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $940 36d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $941 36d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $939 36d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $941 36d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $939 36d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $940 36d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $942 36d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $944 36d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $945 36d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $947 36d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $945 36d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $947 36d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $949 36d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $951 36d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $949 36d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $951 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 100¢ $107 47d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $106 60d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL Yes 42¢ $446 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY Yes 51¢ $536 69d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $543 69d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $544 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.41 · official $110.41 (match) · 99 history records