Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:47:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b51…d1be crypto 1794 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate91%1687W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day85.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$147
14 days−$143
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1199 -6.1% -15.1% 88% 10% -15.1%
≤30d 1857 -3.7% -12.8% 91% 10% -12.9%
≤90d 1857 -3.7% -12.8% 91% 10% -12.9%
all 1857 -3.7% -12.8% 91% 10% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 10% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 1% -21.2%
15% -28.8% 0% -28.8%
20% -35.8% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1687 / 170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1857 / 1794
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day85.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1857 Trades
no open positions (163 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records