Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b51…b708 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate14%6W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$12
other 12% −$2
economics 2% $0
sports 1% −$9
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 0% 0% -41.2%
≤30d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 14% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 32 -3.7% -12.9% 12% 3% -10.4%
all 44 -2.8% -12.1% 14% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 2% -9.9%
10% -20.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses6 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage618d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $45 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $36 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $86 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $86 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $42 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 05 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $9 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $22 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,779 −$4 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $1,180 −$5 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $1,541 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 55m
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 47¢ $8 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $17 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $17 27d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 28d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 28d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $10 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.10 · official $10.10 (match) · 312 history records