Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b4d…0a4e sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-37%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate54%37W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$51
weather 14% $0
other 8% $0
culture 3% $0
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 26 -3.0% -12.2% 96% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 27 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 4% -9.8%
all 68 -34.0% -40.3% 54% 18% -45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 18% -45.7%
10% -46.0% 15% -50.9%
15% -51.2% 12% -55.6%
20% -56.0% 12% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 31
Open positions10
Markets (closed)68 / 78
History coverage109d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on June 4? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 18 $1 +$1 +70%
76ers vs. Nuggets Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Magic Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Bulls Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $4 +$5 +122%
Pistons vs. Raptors Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Hawks Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Celtics Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Mar 13 $2 $0 +12%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bulls vs. Clippers Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 12 $2 +$2 +89%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Raptors vs. Rockets Mar 11 $3 +$2 +56%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Wizards vs. Heat Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Clippers Mar 10 $2 +$3 +118%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 99¢ $1 7d
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 7d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 7d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 9d
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of BUY Yes 100¢ $1 9d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 9d
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 115 history records