Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b4b…94d4 sports 289 markets active 0h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,270 (+12%) realized +$1,269 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%140W / 147L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days−$110
14 days−$110
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -17.3% -25.2% 41% 36% -13.0%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 49% 45% -0.6%
≤90d 70 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 46% -0.5%
all 287 +10.4% -0.1% 49% 46% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 46% +1.7%
10% -9.7% 46% -8.0%
15% -18.4% 45% -16.9%
20% -26.4% 42% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$22 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$1,269
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses140 / 147
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)287 / 289
History coverage309d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ 54¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 38¢ 38¢ $44 $44 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $71 +$42 +59%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $54 +$5 +10%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $140 +$64 +45%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $76 +$5 +6%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $72 +$53 +73%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $71 −$3 -5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $71 −$12 -17%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $71 +$69 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $61 +$69 +114%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $70 +$50 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $71 +$64 +90%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $69 −$39 -57%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $139 +$38 +28%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $72 −$3 -4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $23 +$25 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 +$13 +172%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $27 −$26 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $66 +$34 +52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $40 +$60 +152%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $53 +$47 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $55 +$45 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $44 +$56 +129%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $46 −$1 -3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $53 −$2 -5%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $54 −$53 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $62 +$38 +62%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $50 +$50 +101%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: James Madison (-7.5) Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Western Kentucky vs. Delaware Blue Hens Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 98¢ $113 25m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $27 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $32 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 94¢ $136 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ $31 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 41¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 15¢ $3 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $19 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ $68 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $5 3h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $59 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $64 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $68 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 4¢ $1 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $5 4h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 56¢ $71 5h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $45 5h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 55¢ $71 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $71 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ $71 8h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $71 8h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $71 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $71 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 29¢ $30 20h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $39 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $50 23h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $70 23h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $69 24h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $61 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $71 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.90 · official $114.89 (match) · 635 history records