Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b46…b8ec sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$487 (-8%) realized −$486 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%25W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$186
14 days−$186
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$342
sports 42% +$160
crypto 3% −$73
world 2% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% -27.9%
≤30d 6 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% -27.9%
≤90d 43 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 56% -10.9%
all 47 -12.6% -21.0% 53% 53% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 53% -12.4%
10% -28.5% 40% -20.8%
15% -35.4% 30% -28.4%
20% -41.8% 19% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$71 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$486
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage161d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $173 +$79 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $166 +$33 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $283 −$117 -41%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 +$58 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $215 −$214 -99%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 05 $224 +$72 +32%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 05 $67 +$106 +158%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) May 05 $19 −$19 -99%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 05 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $99 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 04 $93 −$91 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 04 $50 +$43 +85%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 04 $35 +$15 +41%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $299 −$296 -99%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $321 −$319 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $43 −$25 -58%
Sporting CP vs. Vitória SC: O/U 4.5 May 04 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $256 +$51 +20%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $9 −$8 -83%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score May 04 $51 −$16 -32%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $52 +$29 +55%
Will US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? May 04 $101 −$96 -95%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5 May 04 $66 +$28 +43%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $66 +$46 +70%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $200 +$101 +51%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Pachuca end in a draw? May 04 $51 −$34 -67%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $76 +$51 +67%
Will CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? May 04 $101 +$31 +31%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers May 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 04 $51 −$47 -93%
Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-03-08? May 04 $153 +$67 +43%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $187 +$29 +16%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 03 $117 +$36 +30%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox May 03 $218 +$83 +38%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $166 +$52 +32%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $301 +$51 +17%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev May 03 $251 +$50 +20%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $100 +$151 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 02 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Islanders vs. Sharks Mar 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 08 $66 −$66 -100%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Feb 08 $68 −$2 -3%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $162 +$20 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $74 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $78 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $98 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $173 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 11h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $166 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 41¢ $166 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $283 12h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $282 12h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $377 42h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $992 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $55 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $215 6d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $296 50d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 81¢ $173 50d
Flyers vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $174 50d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 50d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Ducks 64¢ $19 50d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights BUY Ducks 39¢ $61 50d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) SELL Knicks 98¢ $131 50d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY Knicks 74¢ $99 50d
Flyers vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 38¢ $67 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $93 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $93 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $50 50d
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 50d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 67¢ $299 50d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $230 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.97 · official $244.97 (match) · 104 history records