Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
3B 0x3b44…264e politics 406 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 270d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$275,157 (+16%) realized +$274,653 · open +$504
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate82%321W / 72L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$4,218per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4,351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,226
7 days+$15,043
14 days+$15,686
30 days+$20,758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% +$96,563
world 23% +$96,251
other 20% +$43,353
economics 14% +$10,456
crypto 8% +$1,850
tech 6% +$15,741
culture 2% +$4,801
sports 1% +$459
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +50.1% +35.8% 93% 79% +30.9%
≤30d 40 +91.8% +73.6% 82% 55% +0.9%
≤90d 99 +91.0% +72.8% 84% 44% +2.4%
all 393 +81.6% +64.3% 82% 49% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.3% 49% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here +48.6% 36% -6.0%
15% +34.2% 28% -15.1%
20% +21.0% 22% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$2,308) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +107% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$885 vs −$213 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.8 per $1 lost it wins $18.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$4,351
Realized+$274,653
Unrealized+$504
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses321 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions13
Markets (closed)393 / 406
History coverage270d ⚠
Avg bet$4,218
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 84¢ 99¢ $1,896 $2,236 +$340 (+18%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 60¢ $840 $1,015 +$175 (+21%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 59¢ 71¢ $349 $418 +$69 (+20%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $256 $308 +$52 (+20%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 89¢ 45¢ $239 $122 −$118 (-49%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $25 $82 +$57 (+233%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $136 $63 −$73 (-54%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 28¢ 72¢ $18 $47 +$29 (+160%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 18¢ 66¢ $7 $26 +$19 (+254%)
Ramp IPO before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 50¢ 55¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $47 $7 −$40 (-86%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $4,724 +$3,226 +68%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1,512 +$100 +7%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary Jun 19 $175 +$142 +81%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $9,421 +$4,406 +47%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $10,665 +$2,339 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $410 −$42 -10%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $14 +$17 +117%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $410 +$53 +13%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $470 +$126 +27%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $1,720 +$732 +43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $962 +$1,925 +200%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3,397 +$2,007 +59%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 +$12 +26%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $531 +$162 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $3,159 +$582 +18%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $232 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $758 +$281 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $1,473 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $67 −$43 -64%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $7,150 +$293 +4%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 4? Jun 08 $183 +$10 +5%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $1,146 −$550 -48%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $429 +$186 +44%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $3,323 +$3,611 +109%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $117,528 +$472 +0%
Will President Trump sign 8 or more pieces of legislation into law in Jun 03 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 31 $78 +$36 +46%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 29, 2026? May 30 $79 −$48 -61%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 25? May 30 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 30 $70 +$4 +5%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 30 $14 +$125 +865%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 28? May 30 $1,196 +$23 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $2,857 +$536 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $3,457 −$115 -3%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? May 23 $46 +$4 +10%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 21? May 23 $41 +$29 +70%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1 +$166 +19703%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? May 23 $1,098 +$37 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026? May 21 $3,090 +$49 +2%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 21 $94 +$298 +318%
Will Doug Mastriano win the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor Republican prim May 20 $380 +$19 +5%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 19, 2026? May 19 $19 +$8 +39%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 15 $91 +$41 +45%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 14 $954 +$580 +61%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $11,847 +$3,566 +30%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 9? May 12 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2026? May 08 $63 +$19 +30%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May? May 08 $512 +$70 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 59¢ $349 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 50¢ $11 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 43¢ $9 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $112 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $175 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $131 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $7 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $1,612 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $1,512 2d
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $171 2d
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? BUY Yes 64¢ $85 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $751 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $250 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1,000 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2,341 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $79 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $361 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $3,054 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1,012 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $673 2d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $145 2d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $435 2d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $310 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $3,544 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $760 2d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 2d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,350.86 · official $4,333.29 (match) · 3500 history records