Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3B 0x3b43…f35e other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$292 (+21%) realized +$303 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$152per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$676now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+26.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+39.8%	+26.5%	50%	50%	+28.5%
≤30d	4	+39.8%	+26.5%	50%	50%	+28.5%
≤90d	4	+39.8%	+26.5%	50%	50%	+28.5%
all	4	+39.8%	+26.5%	50%	50%	+28.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.5%	50%	+28.5%
10%	+14.4%	50%	+16.2%
15%	+3.3%	50%	+5.0%
20%	-6.8%	25%	-5.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +40% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$180 vs −$39 · ×4.6 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.6 per $1 lost it wins $4.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$676

Realized+$303

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions5

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$152

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$400	$396	−$4 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$87	$84	−$3 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$499	+$220	+44%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$51	+$140	+273%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$100	−$58	-58%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	17¢	$89	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$406	1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	92¢	$719	14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$449	16h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	77¢	$191	16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	23¢	$42	16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	17h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$51	17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$100	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $675.81 · official $675.81 (match) · 14 history records