Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3B 0x3b41…3f80 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$106 (+0%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate26%16W / 46L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 63% −$14
politics 17% −$11
other 16% +$7
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% +$121
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 +5.4% -4.7% 13% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 49 +15.0% +4.1% 27% 20% -7.4%
all 62 +11.6% +1.0% 26% 16% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 16% -9.1%
10% -8.7% 16% -17.8%
15% -17.5% 16% -25.7%
20% -25.6% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +24% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×6.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses16 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage631d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $11 +$9 +83%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $82 $0 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $220 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $392 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $176 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $183 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $171 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $176 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $182 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $184 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $365 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $191 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $187 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $381 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $180 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $184 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $181 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 +$6 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +165%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 +$6 +104%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $6 +$8 +146%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $44 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 02 $22 +$28 +126%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 30 $23 +$36 +156%
Bruins vs. Sabres Mar 27 $23 +$40 +178%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers Mar 25 $24 +$19 +79%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Mar 24 $22 +$28 +132%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $113 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 47h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $11 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $23 16d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $23 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 18d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 24d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 25d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 25d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $82 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $172 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.17 · official $113.17 (match) · 315 history records