Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b40…494c
crypto · 1806 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$105 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$106 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1573 / 533
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2106 / 1806
History coverage25d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day75.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 2106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$363
7 days−$272
14 days−$183
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 644 -54.1% -58.4% 40% 39% -22.7%
≤30d 2106 -14.8% -22.9% 75% 55% -10.6%
≤90d 2106 -14.8% -22.9% 75% 55% -10.6%
all 2106 -14.8% -22.9% 75% 55% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover75.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 55% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 1% -19.1%
15% -37.0% 0% -27.0%
20% -43.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.96 · official $12.96 (match) · 3500 history records