Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3b3e…6057 crypto 1200 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (224 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$204 (+1%) realized +$204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate83%994W / 208L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day224.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$148
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$140
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (224 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 471 +0.2% -9.4% 84% 31% -8.7%
≤30d 1202 -0.8% -10.3% 83% 36% -8.8%
≤90d 1202 -0.8% -10.3% 83% 36% -8.8%
all 1202 -0.8% -10.3% 83% 36% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover224.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 36% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 4% -17.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses994 / 208
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1202 / 1200
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day224.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1202 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$64 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$45 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$22 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$45 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $202 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$23 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $203 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$81 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $18 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $28 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $28 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records