Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b37…0182 world 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 493d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate24%20W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$7
politics 21% +$2
other 17% −$1
sports 12% −$14
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 8% -8.6%
≤30d 30 +0.0% -9.5% 23% 3% -9.0%
≤90d 77 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 4% -9.3%
all 82 -3.0% -12.2% 24% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

493d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses20 / 62
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)82 / 85
History coverage493d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $40 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $46 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $50 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $54 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $34 +$6 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $14 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $9 −$2 -17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $76 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $96 +$5 +5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $104 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $72 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $137 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $48 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $54 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $27 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $40 5h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $40 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $0 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $39 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $10 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.23 · official $27.00 (match) · 331 history records