Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b36…8f60
other · 37 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage307d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $80 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $47 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $6 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 13 at 5 Aug 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 395–409 times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 11 $1 $0 -17%
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Aug 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3800 on August 11? Aug 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 10 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% −$2
other 29% $0
politics 16% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $31 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $5 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $4 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $8 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 29h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $3 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $12 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $15 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $34 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $43 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $4 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $42 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $47 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 8d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $14 302d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 36 -0.6% -10.0% 19% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.41 · official $44.41 (match) · 110 history records