Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3b36…78d0 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$295 (+8%) realized +$295 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$983per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 599d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$144
politics 22% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 0% -5.3%
≤30d 2 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 0% -5.3%
≤90d 2 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 0% -5.3%
all 4 +6.8% -3.3% 50% 25% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 25% -3.2%
10% -12.6% 25% -12.5%
15% -21.0% 0% -20.9%
20% -28.8% 0% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$26 · ×6.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.32 per $1 lost it wins $6.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$295
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage599d
Avg bet$983
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,320 +$167 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $759 −$23 -3%
Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July r Jun 26 $349 −$28 -8%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $504 +$158 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $889 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 94¢ $801 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $836 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $736 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 71¢ $735 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $33 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $726 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $168 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $30 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $16 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $11 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $100 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $24 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $194 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $20 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $20 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $135 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records