Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3B 0x3b35…e185 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$42 (+3%) realized +$46 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate85%41W / 7L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$11
crypto 15% +$12
economics 14% −$2
finance 10% +$7
politics 8% +$14
tech 4% +$2
sports 1% +$4
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.7% -6.2% 100% 0% -6.2%
≤30d 6 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 50% +2.3%
≤90d 25 +18.7% +7.4% 92% 60% +1.8%
all 48 +15.9% +4.9% 85% 38% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 38% -3.0%
10% -5.2% 23% -12.3%
15% -14.3% 12% -20.8%
20% -22.7% 6% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.51 per $1 lost it wins $13.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses41 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions28
Markets (closed)48 / 76
History coverage140d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 83¢ 83¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 59¢ 20¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 93¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $13 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 08 $30 +$5 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 01 $17 +$4 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 01 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $23 +$5 +20%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $11 +$4 +39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 04 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $12 +$2 +20%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 04 $11 +$4 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $6 −$1 -18%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $15 −$3 -18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 03 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 03 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 03 $31 +$1 +3%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 03 $5 +$1 +18%
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 03 $6 $0 +4%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 03 $4 +$2 +52%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 03 $5 +$1 +32%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 03 $10 +$2 +25%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 12? Mar 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 12? Mar 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 04 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Mar 04 $5 $0 +7%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Mar 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 04 $27 +$1 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 28 $71 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 28 $29 $0 -0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 21 $2 +$3 +178%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by February 28, 2026? Feb 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote? Feb 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 11 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026 Feb 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 08 $19 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $52 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $18 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $35 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL No 98¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $10 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 8d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 9d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $9 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 92¢ $6 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 95¢ $35 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 96¢ $37 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 97¢ $18 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 97¢ $18 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 97¢ $37 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 98¢ $12 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 98¢ $25 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.68 · official $80.44 · 327 history records