Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b2f…fb86 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$192 (+45%) realized +$192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day109.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +39.0% +25.8% 42% 42% +51.1%
≤30d 19 +39.0% +25.8% 42% 42% +51.1%
≤90d 19 +39.0% +25.8% 42% 42% +51.1%
all 19 +39.0% +25.8% 42% 42% +51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.8% 42% +51.1%
10% ← realistic here +13.7% 42% +36.6%
15% +2.7% 42% +23.4%
20% -7.3% 42% +11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +105% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$14 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day109.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$85 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$64 +399%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$105 +709%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$45 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$45 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$44 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$44 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records