Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b2e…e228
crypto · 119 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
−$3,159 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,086 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,086
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses54 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage478d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 1 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days−$336
30 days−$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $83 +$21 +26%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $414 −$322 -78%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $10 −$8 -77%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $31 −$27 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 25 $83 −$62 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 25 $83 −$69 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8AM ET Apr 01 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9AM ET Apr 01 $600 +$66 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $565 −$33 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2,505 +$139 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 31 $245 +$243 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 31 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on March 24? Mar 25 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $99 +$1 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $12 +$5 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $1,191 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 17 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 13 $507 −$458 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 11 $576 −$517 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 11 $39 −$37 -96%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 10 $49 +$40 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 08 $60 +$66 +110%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 06 $139 −$123 -88%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 06 $137 +$144 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 03 $208 +$219 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 03 $140 +$148 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 03 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 01 $100 −$60 -60%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 29 $7 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 29 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 29 $55 −$40 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11PM ET Jan 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 29 $52 +$46 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 29 $128 +$96 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 29 $100 −$87 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 29 $166 +$10 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? Jan 28 $160 +$20 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 27 $51 +$49 +97%
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 26 $91 +$90 +98%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 12AM ET Jan 12 $346 −$288 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 12 $157 −$110 -70%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 12 $60 −$46 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 12 $192 −$10 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $35 −$17 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% +$138
crypto 40% −$1,154
other 14% −$41
sports 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $3,911 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $38 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $921 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $519 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4,005 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $507 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $42 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $53 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $40 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $83 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $83 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $83 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $83 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $83 12d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 13d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 13d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 13d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $4 13d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 13d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -34.6% -40.8% 50% 50% +12.4%
≤30d 7 -66.8% -70.0% 14% 14% -69.4%
≤90d 20 -24.8% -31.9% 55% 20% -10.3%
all 118 -15.0% -23.1% 46% 37% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 37% -17.3%
10% -30.5% 35% -25.2%
15% -37.2% 32% -32.5%
20% -43.4% 27% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.89 · official $1.89 (match) · 329 history records