Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3B 0x3b2d…ee33 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22,707 (-26%) realized −$22,361 · open −$346
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,897per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2,654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$797
7 days+$797
14 days+$1,920
30 days+$1,920
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$12,150
politics 25% −$22,167
crypto 21% +$10,028
sports 2% +$1,123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +39.9% +26.6% 100% 100% +26.6%
≤30d 2 +46.8% +32.8% 100% 100% +33.0%
≤90d 2 +46.8% +32.8% 100% 100% +33.0%
all 12 -5.9% -14.9% 67% 58% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 58% -33.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 50% -40.1%
15% -30.5% 33% -45.8%
20% -37.3% 17% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,977 vs −$9,660 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$2,654
Realized−$22,361
Unrealized−$346
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage613d
Avg bet$5,897
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,000 $975 −$25 (-2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,001 $930 −$72 (-7%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $750 −$250 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,000 +$797 +40%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 02 $2,088 +$1,123 +54%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 12 $1,479 +$322 +22%
Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >20m views on day 1? Feb 12 $10,870 −$9,773 -90%
Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >30m views on day 1? Feb 12 $6,808 −$6,700 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? Nov 22 $1,182 +$305 +26%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? Nov 21 $7,421 +$6,733 +91%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $5,970 +$2,439 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 12 $10,010 +$2,990 +30%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $19,203 −$19,156 -100%
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election? Nov 05 $3,236 −$3,011 -93%
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? Oct 29 $15,097 +$1,111 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 41m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,031 42m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,030 47m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $906 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,872 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $132 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,852 39h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 39h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $3,211 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $8 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $8 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $3 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $3 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $3 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $314 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $5 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $5 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $106 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $116 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $786 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $2 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $3 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $4 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $260 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,654.50 · official $2,654.50 (match) · 368 history records