Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b2c…aeb6 other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$3 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$23
sports 13% +$25
crypto 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +18.2% +6.9% 76% 35% -9.9%
≤30d 17 +18.2% +6.9% 76% 35% -9.9%
≤90d 17 +18.2% +6.9% 76% 35% -9.9%
all 17 +18.2% +6.9% 76% 35% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 35% -9.9%
10% -3.3% 35% -18.5%
15% -12.6% 12% -26.4%
20% -21.2% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$20 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage7d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 96¢ 100¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $70 +$19 +26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$4 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $56 +$15 +27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 +$6 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$52 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$22 +43%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 16 $12 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 0m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 3m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $60 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $20 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 26h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 46h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $5 47h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 90¢ $15 47h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 83¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.59 · official $178.59 (match) · 72 history records