Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b29…b2f7 sports 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized +$37 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day53.4pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$231
crypto 13% +$87
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.1% -5.8% 45% 40% -10.8%
≤30d 20 +4.1% -5.8% 45% 40% -10.8%
≤90d 20 +4.1% -5.8% 45% 40% -10.8%
all 20 +4.1% -5.8% 45% 40% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 40% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 30% -19.3%
15% -23.0% 25% -27.1%
20% -30.6% 20% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$83 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day53.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $310 +$268 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $748 −$18 -2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $120 −$64 -53%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,199 −$91 -8%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $60 +$40 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $110 +$390 +353%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $240 −$239 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $186 +$14 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 +$90 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $63 +$17 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $469 −$41 -9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $183 −$183 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $304 −$17 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $89 −$88 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $70 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $92 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 30m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $43 38m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 80¢ $795 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $815 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $729 44m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $748 44m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 2¢ $57 59m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $120 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 86¢ $973 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $166 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $19 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $116 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $15.16 · 81 history records