Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3B 0x3b29…556e sports 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,705 (-9%) realized −$2,281 · open +$576
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%29W / 42L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$200est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2,176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$627
14 days+$857
30 days+$1,191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,861
other 29% +$1,156
world 3% −$511
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.0% +4.0% 60% 60% +13.4%
≤30d 12 +12.7% +2.0% 58% 58% +13.7%
≤90d 71 -7.1% -16.0% 41% 39% -18.9%
all 71 -7.1% -16.0% 41% 39% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 39% -18.9%
10% -24.0% 39% -26.6%
15% -31.3% 39% -33.7%
20% -38.1% 39% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$282 vs −$238 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$2,176
Realized−$2,281
Unrealized+$576
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage68d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,966 +$966 (+97%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 11¢ $600 $210 −$390 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $608 +$478 +79%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $508 +$578 +114%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $389 −$380 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $507 +$418 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $477 −$467 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $550 −$550 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$39 +78%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $508 +$533 +105%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $405 +$259 +64%
CF Cruz Azul leading at halftime? May 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $407 +$534 +131%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $495 +$384 +78%
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 May 17 $886 −$872 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 13 $683 −$673 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 13 $456 +$357 +78%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $364 −$359 -99%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer May 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? May 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5 May 13 $175 −$172 -98%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $426 +$724 +170%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $51 −$50 -97%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $499 −$492 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $498 −$490 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $424 −$417 -98%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $305 −$300 -98%
Will CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? May 05 $74 +$174 +236%
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 May 05 $70 +$63 +90%
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 May 05 $102 +$169 +166%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC end in a draw? May 05 $122 −$119 -98%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $40 −$39 -97%
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5 May 05 $254 −$250 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-15? May 04 $50 +$44 +88%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 256.5 May 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 102.5 May 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 254.5 May 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 May 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $150 −$150 -100%
Newcastle United FC leading at halftime? May 04 $75 −$75 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $200 −$200 -100%
AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5 May 04 $181 −$181 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 May 04 $383 −$383 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? May 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26? May 04 $300 −$300 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 3 FC Barcelona? May 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Club Libertad win on 2026-04-15? May 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Athletic Club vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score May 04 $226 −$226 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 27m
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $612 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,086 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $608 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $1,086 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $389 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $508 2d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $925 6d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $507 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $477 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 12d
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,041 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $500 12d
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 12d
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 13d
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $663 13d
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $405 14d
CF Cruz Azul leading at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 26d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $600 26d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $67 26d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 26d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 26d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $19 26d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 26d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 26d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 26d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 26d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,175.80 · official $2,175.80 (match) · 143 history records