Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b27…0b98 other 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,503 (-6%) realized −$4,526 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate54%116W / 100L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$4,005
sports 15% −$762
culture 4% −$753
weather 0% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -22.9% -30.2% 52% 34% -20.6%
≤30d 126 -10.3% -18.8% 51% 32% -15.3%
≤90d 216 -12.2% -20.5% 54% 30% -18.6%
all 216 -12.2% -20.5% 54% 30% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 30% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 14% -26.3%
15% -35.1% 10% -33.5%
20% -41.5% 8% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$148 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$4,526
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses116 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)216 / 204
History coverage72d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+44%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Jun 15 $23 −$21 -90%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12.5m? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $789 −$789 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $60 +$8 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $36 +$23 +65%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $222 +$114 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $442 +$62 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $702 +$71 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $603 −$600 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $503 −$500 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $201 +$32 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $363 +$59 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $400 +$15 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$6 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 +$7 +143%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $452 −$13 -3%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $703 +$102 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1,292 +$154 +12%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$1 -3%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $151 −$9 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $652 +$71 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $660 +$136 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $161 +$54 +33%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,314 +$140 +11%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $86 +$23 +27%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 +$26 +87%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $25 +$15 +60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $151 −$112 -74%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$27 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 50¢ $34 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $5 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $50 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 3h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.98 · official $163.98 (match) · 2500 history records