Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:50:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b20…1b8b other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$5
other 34% −$1
crypto 8% +$1
politics 5% −$2
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.7% -11.9% 12% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -2.2% -11.5% 31% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 16 -2.2% -11.5% 31% 0% -10.3%
all 63 -3.3% -12.5% 35% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 3% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage461d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $1 $0 -21%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $35 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $34 −$2 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $72 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $79 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $38 −$4 -9%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $3 $0 +10%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -90%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $8 −$2 -27%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 20 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 18 $1 $0 +10%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 14 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $12 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $16 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $11 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $31 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $35 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $35 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $9 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $23 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $32 34h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $16 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $13 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $13 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $27 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $33 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $29 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $4 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $36 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $36 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $25 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records