Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b1b…a122 sports 46 markets active 1d ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,444 (+5%) realized +$906 · open +$538
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$644per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$192
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$569
politics 17% +$664
other 15% +$186
world 2% +$56
economics 1% +$3
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.5% -16.3% 56% 56% -26.8%
≤30d 17 -5.7% -14.7% 59% 59% -17.5%
≤90d 31 -2.0% -11.4% 65% 58% -5.8%
all 43 -0.1% -9.6% 65% 51% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 51% -6.6%
10% -18.2% 44% -15.5%
15% -26.1% 33% -23.7%
20% -33.4% 16% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$115 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$1,345
Realized+$906
Unrealized+$538
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage218d
Avg bet$644
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 56¢ 98¢ $709 $1,250 +$541 (+76%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $48 $53 +$4 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $49 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $39 +$61 +156%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $69 +$31 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $29 +$6 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $72 +$28 +39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $130 −$124 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $138 −$81 -59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$53 +113%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $58 −$36 -62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $84 +$16 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $326 +$74 +23%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 16 $430 +$59 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 20 $591 +$56 +10%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 14 $256 −$108 -42%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $554 +$260 +47%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $396 −$131 -33%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $352 +$141 +40%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 11 $687 −$652 -95%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $540 +$360 +67%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 24 $218 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 24 $244 +$59 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 23 $285 +$174 +61%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $360 +$85 +24%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 22 $792 +$109 +14%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February? Mar 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Mar 05 $189 +$78 +41%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? Mar 05 $397 +$129 +32%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 30 $644 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jan 29 $43 +$47 +110%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner Jan 29 $124 +$102 +82%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $326 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jan 25 $25 −$24 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jan 25 $9,058 +$435 +5%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $8,209 −$125 -2%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $2,042 +$210 +10%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $600 −$153 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $58 27h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $39 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 81¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 69¢ $0 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 69¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 69¢ $48 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $72 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL B8 $6 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 58¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 58¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 58¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 58¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 81¢ $81 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 22¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 72¢ $72 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $57 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 43¢ $24 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 29¢ $22 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $34 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 84¢ $84 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,344.54 · official $1,344.54 (match) · 231 history records