Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b17…f3fe weather 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+8%) realized +$4 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.6% -28.1% 33% 33% -4.4%
≤30d 6 -20.6% -28.1% 33% 33% -4.4%
≤90d 6 -20.6% -28.1% 33% 33% -4.4%
all 6 -20.6% -28.1% 33% 33% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 33% -4.4%
10% -35.0% 33% -13.6%
15% -41.3% 33% -21.9%
20% -47.0% 33% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Yes 79¢ 95¢ $84 $101 +$17 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? No 79¢ 100¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 18 $80 −$8 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$20 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$28 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 48m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 77¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 77¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? SELL No 73¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $80 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 79¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.30 · official $113.51 (match) · 25 history records