Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b16…1290 sports 1012 markets active 1h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$384 (+3%) realized +$422 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate59%583W / 412L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$213
14 days+$205
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$696
other 16% −$10
tech 3% −$257
politics 3% −$36
world 2% −$31
weather 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% +$5
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +56.9% +41.9% 82% 73% +37.6%
≤30d 70 +11.0% +0.5% 51% 43% +15.5%
≤90d 134 +6.0% -4.1% 54% 44% +7.0%
all 995 +2.2% -7.5% 59% 40% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 40% -6.8%
10% -16.4% 38% -15.7%
15% -24.4% 36% -23.9%
20% -31.9% 34% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$422
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses583 / 412
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions16
Markets (closed)995 / 1012
History coverage276d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 995 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 50¢ 38¢ $125 $95 −$30 (-24%)
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 75¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 51¢ 57¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+13%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 35¢ 23¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-34%)
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto Nothing 93¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Relay FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 94¢ 71¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? Yes $1 $3 +$2 (+155%)
Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Elon Bull Run Parlay Yes 17¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Yes 16¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $122 +$93 +76%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 22 $83 −$82 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 22 $127 +$151 +119%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $6 +$3 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $15 +$9 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $5 +$9 +168%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $4 +$3 +81%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $8 $0 +3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $20 +$18 +88%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 18 $9 $0 -5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $10 +$7 +69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +158%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $6 +$5 +83%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -23%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $7 $0 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $6 +$6 +109%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 +$3 +114%
Makarska: Barbora Palicova vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 05 $5 +$3 +67%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 +$5 +97%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $5 +$6 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 +$6 +124%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 03 $6 $0 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 03 $7 $0 -5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $5 +$4 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $5 +$4 +86%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 02 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $127 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $122 21h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL Chicago Cubs 49¢ $114 21h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 24h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 24h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 37¢ $29 42h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $54 42h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $132 43h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $278 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $15 3d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $112 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 87¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $6 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 42¢ $6 3d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 100¢ $19 3d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 49¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 4d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 50¢ $15 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $8 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 100¢ $38 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $8 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ $9 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 37¢ $5 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $9 6d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 6d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 7d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 99¢ $17 7d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.59 · official $278.16 · 2415 history records