Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b16…23a7 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$56 (-13%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$35
other 32% $0
sports 26% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.9% +3.1% 100% 100% +3.0%
≤30d 11 -3.9% -13.1% 82% 73% -17.0%
≤90d 18 -6.9% -15.7% 78% 67% -21.3%
all 18 -6.9% -15.7% 78% 67% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 67% -21.3%
10% -23.8% 28% -28.8%
15% -31.2% 6% -35.7%
20% -37.9% 0% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$27 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage68d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $29 +$4 +13%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 +$3 +13%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$3 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $27 +$5 +18%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 +$4 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? May 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 11? May 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 1? May 01 $33 +$8 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $24 +$8 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $14 +$4 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $11 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $29 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $11 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $15 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $26 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $23 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $20 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $32 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $27 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $23 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $19 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 91¢ $17 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 90¢ $15 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 11? BUY No 18¢ $2 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 11? BUY No 20¢ $38 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 11? BUY No 20¢ $0 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? SELL No 24¢ $39 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? BUY No 24¢ $34 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? BUY No 24¢ $2 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? BUY No 24¢ $1 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? BUY No 24¢ $1 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? BUY No 24¢ $1 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 1? SELL No 33¢ $0 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 1? SELL No 33¢ $13 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 1? SELL No 33¢ $3 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 1? SELL No 33¢ $1 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 1? SELL No 33¢ $0 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 1? SELL No 33¢ $0 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records