Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3B 0x3b16…f3fe sports 194 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,411 (-8%) realized −$1,393 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%77W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$642
other 24% −$893
crypto 8% −$181
world 7% −$167
politics 4% −$24
tech 2% −$99
culture 2% +$700
finance 1% −$113
economics 0% +$14
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -50.1% -54.9% 0% 0% -54.9%
≤30d 1 -50.1% -54.9% 0% 0% -54.9%
≤90d 1 -50.1% -54.9% 0% 0% -54.9%
all 177 -20.9% -28.4% 44% 38% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 38% -17.1%
10% -35.3% 33% -25.0%
15% -41.5% 26% -32.3%
20% -47.2% 19% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$66 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized−$1,393
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses77 / 100
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)177 / 194
History coverage161d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $90 $86 −$5 (-5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 34¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 27 $200 −$100 -50%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $233 −$233 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $157 +$158 +101%
Will PSV win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $50 +$18 +35%
Rio Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi Feb 16 $177 −$177 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Jasmine Paolin Feb 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-15? Feb 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany Feb 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-15? Feb 16 $100 +$72 +72%
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia Feb 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Ireland win? Feb 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $100 +$59 +59%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Ugo Humbert Feb 14 $100 +$45 +45%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $319 +$20 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $100 +$49 +49%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $100 +$69 +70%
Will AZ win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $396 −$396 -100%
Heat vs. Wizards Feb 08 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $75 +$91 +122%
Qatar Total Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Magdalena Frech Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Wizards vs. Nets Feb 08 $100 +$67 +67%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Feb 08 $159 +$45 +28%
Nuggets vs. Bulls Feb 08 $200 +$99 +49%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $100 +$30 +30%
Rockets vs. Thunder Feb 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 07 $107 +$40 +37%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 07 $101 +$129 +127%
Heat vs. Celtics Feb 07 $200 +$82 +41%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Sara Bejlek vs Clara Tauson Feb 06 $120 −$120 -100%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Feb 06 $100 +$41 +41%
76ers vs. Lakers Feb 06 $100 +$61 +61%
Jazz vs. Hawks Feb 06 $150 +$42 +28%
Predators vs. Capitals Feb 06 $220 +$129 +59%
Open Sud de France: Tallon Griekspoor vs Titouan Droguet Feb 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Open Sud de France: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Gea Feb 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Will France win? Feb 06 $80 +$16 +20%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Alexandra Eala vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Feb 05 $200 +$70 +35%
Transylvania Open: Emma Raducanu vs Maja Chwalinska Feb 05 $79 +$20 +25%
Transylvania Open: Xinyu Wang vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Feb 05 $80 −$80 -100%
Ostrava Open: Katie Volynets vs Alycia Parks Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Feb 05 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-05? Feb 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Clippers Feb 05 $443 +$350 +79%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Feb 05 $120 +$115 +96%
Open Sud de France: Titouan Droguet vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Feb 04 $180 −$180 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 86¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 72¢ $30 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2h
Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2h
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2h
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $92 3h
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? SELL No 15¢ $92 3h
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $233 121d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? SELL No 28¢ $8 123d
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, BUY Strickland 30¢ $68 125d
Will PSV win on 2026-02-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 125d
Rio Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi BUY Darderi 71¢ $177 131d
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Jasmine Paolin BUY Paolini 64¢ $30 131d
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Jasmine Paolin BUY Paolini 64¢ $30 131d
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Jasmine Paolin BUY Paolini 64¢ $30 131d
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Jasmine Paolin BUY Paolini 64¢ $30 131d
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Jasmine Paolin BUY Paolini 64¢ $30 131d
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Jasmine Paolin BUY Paolini 64¢ $10 131d
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia BUY Czechia 56¢ $74 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.84 · official $461.85 (match) · 412 history records