Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b14…4a41 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$35
other 41% +$13
crypto 10% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -34.0% -40.3% 29% 29% -12.8%
≤30d 14 -34.0% -40.3% 29% 29% -12.8%
≤90d 14 -34.0% -40.3% 29% 29% -12.8%
all 14 -34.0% -40.3% 29% 29% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.3% 29% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -46.0% 21% -21.1%
15% -51.2% 21% -28.7%
20% -56.0% 21% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 56¢ 63¢ $158 $177 +$20 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $39 −$7 -18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $41 +$35 +87%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $61 +$38 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $30 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $55 −$15 -27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$7 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 56¢ $160 23m
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $32 29m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 29m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $15 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 57¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $98 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $61 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 18¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 9h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $39 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 21¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 24¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 74¢ $55 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $30 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 56¢ $17 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $12 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 34¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.29 · official $177.29 (match) · 30 history records