Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b14…3051
other · 29 markets active 2h ago
10.0score
+$938 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$931 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2,238
Realized+$931
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions14
Markets (closed)15 / 29
History coverage103d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit41%
Chart Positions 14 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$157
14 days+$759
30 days+$778
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $350 $359 +$9 (+2%)
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 67¢ $260 $272 +$12 (+4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 68¢ 68¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 75¢ $149 $147 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $110 $117 +$7 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $71 $87 +$16 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $65 $67 +$2 (+3%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 35¢ 21¢ $31 $18 −$12 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $25 +$24 +93%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $267 +$39 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $181 +$36 +20%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $32 +$66 +209%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Jun 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $58 −$58 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? Jun 07 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $522 +$46 +9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $180 +$916 +508%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 15 $320 −$241 -75%
Will "Toronto" be said on ICEMAN? May 15 $218 +$260 +119%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 19 $42 +$58 +138%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $19 +$13 +68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 09 $35 +$89 +254%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $20 −$8 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% +$484
sports 13% +$855
crypto 11% −$3
finance 9% −$94
culture 6% −$262
politics 1% −$35
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $100 1h
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $156 19h
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 44h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $262 47h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 87¢ $267 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 83¢ $181 5d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 99¢ $98 5d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 6d
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $366 6d
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $273 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 88¢ $522 6d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 29¢ $32 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $58 11d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,053 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $107 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $70 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $117 19d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $73 27d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 27d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 27d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $79 29d
Will "Toronto" be said on ICEMAN? SELL Yes 96¢ $478 29d
Will "Toronto" be said on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 43¢ $218 48d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? BUY Yes 38¢ $275 48d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $500 48d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 13¢ $137 80d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 12¢ $44 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL Yes 38¢ $101 85d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+51.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +5.7% -4.4% 62% 50% -19.7%
≤30d 11 +54.3% +39.6% 64% 55% +23.8%
≤90d 13 +61.8% +46.4% 69% 62% +25.8%
all 15 +67.8% +51.8% 67% 60% +28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.8% 60% +28.2%
10% +37.3% 47% +16.0%
15% +24.0% 47% +4.8%
20% +11.9% 47% -5.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,237.84 · official $2,237.94 (match) · 73 history records