Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3b13…3e90 crypto 1079 markets active 5h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$314 (+1%) realized +$314 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate92%995W / 84L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$4
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +1.6% -8.1% 89% 8% -11.1%
≤30d 489 +2.1% -7.6% 91% 8% -10.0%
≤90d 980 +2.6% -7.2% 92% 9% -9.1%
all 1079 +3.0% -6.8% 92% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 10% -9.0%
10% -15.7% 1% -17.7%
15% -23.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -31.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$314
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses995 / 84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1079 / 1079
History coverage95d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1079 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$7 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$12 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2394 history records