Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3b11…a02d other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% −$10
other 28% −$2
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.9% -28.4% 60% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 5 -20.9% -28.4% 60% 0% -14.9%
≤90d 5 -20.9% -28.4% 60% 0% -14.9%
all 5 -20.9% -28.4% 60% 0% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 0% -14.9%
10% -35.3% 0% -23.1%
15% -41.5% 0% -30.5%
20% -47.3% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 94¢ 95¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $25 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $62 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $103 −$13 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $36 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.33 · official $75.33 (match) · 15 history records