Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b10…523b sports 168 markets active 23h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$723 (-5%) realized −$723 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%75W / 91L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$475
7 days−$1,254
14 days−$1,008
30 days−$793
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$191
world 39% −$469
other 6% −$62
crypto 3% −$400
weather 1% −$38
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -5.4% -14.4% 48% 38% -22.6%
≤30d 149 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 38% -15.0%
≤90d 166 -4.8% -13.8% 45% 37% -14.3%
all 166 -4.8% -13.8% 45% 37% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 37% -14.3%
10% -22.1% 31% -22.5%
15% -29.6% 27% -30.0%
20% -36.5% 21% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$31 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$723
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses75 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 168
History coverage33d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 16 $103 +$141 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $410 −$400 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $813 −$319 -39%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$19 -93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $707 +$141 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $328 +$35 +11%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $217 +$84 +39%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $133 −$132 -99%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$29 -58%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $33 −$2 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,516 −$695 -28%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$30 +293%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$13 -65%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$13 -54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $27 +$14 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$11 +38%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $70 +$19 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Future perform "Mask Off" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$9 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$17 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$2 -9%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$20 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$20 +97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $33 −$12 -35%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $73 −$4 -5%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 +$14 +44%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $768 +$7 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $710 −$70 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $329 +$9 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$9 -23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$11 +53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $144 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 49¢ $493 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $813 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $1 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 30h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $707 47h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 50¢ $363 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 44¢ $328 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 68¢ $82 2d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) SELL Team Vitality 30¢ $21 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $51 2d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) BUY Team Vitality 69¢ $50 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $41 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $125 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 35¢ $14 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $17 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $5 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 62¢ $50 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 61¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 540 history records