Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3b10…f57c sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+69%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$20
other 21% −$2
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+67.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +84.6% +67.0% 40% 40% +73.1%
≤30d 15 +84.6% +67.0% 40% 40% +73.1%
≤90d 15 +84.6% +67.0% 40% 40% +73.1%
all 15 +84.6% +67.0% 40% 40% +73.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +67.0% 40% +73.1%
10% +51.0% 40% +56.6%
15% +36.4% 40% +41.4%
20% +23.0% 40% +27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +91% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +85% · $-wt +91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +116% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Iliman Ndiaye: 1+ goals Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $1 +$6 +549%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 +$3 +275%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +132%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $2 +$10 +468%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$3 +149%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 1h
Iliman Ndiaye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $7 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 8h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 8h
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 2¢ $1 10h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $1 10h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 31h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 31h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 31h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 31h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 31h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 32h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $12 32h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $2 33h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.35 · official $4.35 (match) · 26 history records