Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3b0f…c7e8 sports 361 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$657 (+4%) realized +$730 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%104W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$228est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$312
7 days+$546
14 days+$569
30 days+$394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$366
other 39% +$324
crypto 1% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +2.1% -7.7% 25% 25% +18.7%
≤30d 111 -9.0% -17.7% 22% 22% +3.8%
≤90d 354 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 28% -5.7%
all 354 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 28% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 28% -5.7%
10% -17.1% 28% -14.8%
15% -25.1% 27% -23.0%
20% -32.4% 25% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$32 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$730
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses104 / 250
Est. fees paid−$228
Open positions2
Markets (closed)354 / 361
History coverage86d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $139 −$14 -10%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Cor Jun 17 $20 −$9 -48%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -21%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -21%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $19 −$2 -13%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $19 −$2 -13%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $88 +$158 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$149 +291%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $39 +$62 +158%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $28 +$50 +177%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $52 −$51 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -49%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $36 −$4 -10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $106 −$105 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $89 +$30 +34%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $34 −$11 -33%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $37 −$36 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $37 −$36 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $70 −$4 -6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $40 +$42 +105%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $19 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $117 +$119 +101%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $19 −$16 -84%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 12 $54 −$53 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 12 $53 −$51 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $17 −$9 -54%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $38 +$374 +982%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $19 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $28 +$124 +447%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $86 +$119 +139%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Bolivia 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Bolivia 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bolivia 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bolivia 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $35 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U BUY 37¢ $113 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U BUY 46¢ $94 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL 43¢ $126 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Croat BUY 44¢ $134 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners AND Spread: Portugal BUY 37¢ $112 4h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Cor SELL 5¢ $10 5h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Cor BUY 9¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 5h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Corners AND Portugal vs. DR Congo BUY 39¢ $15 6h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Corners AND Portugal vs. DR Congo BUY 43¢ $115 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $139 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 77¢ $78 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $52 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $34 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 31¢ $46 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 41¢ $42 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $51 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.36 · official $573.03 · 999 history records