Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3B 0x3b0a…4775 other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 858d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$926 (-11%) realized −$934 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%40W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$125
14 days+$125
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$413
politics 30% −$218
crypto 8% −$487
sports 7% +$117
world 3% −$199
culture 2% +$87
economics 2% +$33
tech 2% +$85
weather 1% +$61
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +96.6% +77.9% 100% 75% +35.8%
≤30d 4 +96.6% +77.9% 100% 75% +35.8%
≤90d 9 +44.9% +31.1% 78% 56% -9.2%
all 82 -4.8% -13.8% 49% 38% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 38% -20.2%
10% -22.1% 28% -27.8%
15% -29.6% 20% -34.8%
20% -36.5% 17% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$72 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

858d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$934
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses40 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage858d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $125 $133 +$8 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $29 +$51 +178%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 +$38 +172%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 13 $100 +$33 +33%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 18 $149 +$1 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 18 $154 +$46 +30%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $3 +$4 +150%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $125 −$125 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 29 $76 −$48 -62%
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 07 $40 +$3 +8%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 13 $24 +$1 +4%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 10 $200 +$118 +59%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 31 $79 +$21 +27%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Dec 31 $100 +$2 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 31 $100 +$34 +34%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 -50%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 08 $200 +$33 +16%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Nov 25 $400 +$56 +14%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Nov 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $100 +$23 +24%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Oct 23 $100 −$77 -77%
Washington State vs. Virginia Oct 19 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 18 $300 −$279 -93%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or mor Oct 11 $200 +$87 +44%
US government shutdown in 2025? Oct 05 $250 +$51 +20%
Florida State vs. Virginia Sep 28 $50 +$129 +257%
Will David Sacks say "Memecoin" during his February 4 presser? Feb 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday? Jan 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 23 $250 −$250 -100%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Biden pardon Fauci? Jan 20 $95 +$276 +291%
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate? Dec 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $263 −$139 -53%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $175 −$135 -77%
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Oct 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? Oct 15 $50 +$64 +127%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his Nevada rally? Oct 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Who will win the debate according to polls? Oct 07 $100 +$28 +28%
Debate Bingo - Card 3 Sep 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Kamala say "liar" at debate? Sep 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Haitian" at debate? Sep 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" at debate? Sep 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Kamala say "McDonald's" at debate? Sep 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Kamala say "I'm speaking" at debate? Sep 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump and Harris shake hands at first debate? Sep 11 $50 +$135 +270%
No Trump vs. Harris debates before election? Sep 10 $100 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 98¢ $98 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $22 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $29 3d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 99¢ $149 34d
Hawks vs. Knicks SELL Hawks $6 49d
James Comey arrested by April 29? BUY No 69¢ $63 49d
James Comey arrested by April 29? BUY No 70¢ $56 49d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Hawks $3 49d
James Comey arrested by April 29? BUY No 69¢ $6 49d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 30¢ $28 49d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 155d
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 93¢ $40 157d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 157d
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 158d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 158d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 182d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $32 182d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $22 182d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 189d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 77¢ $154 189d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $100 189d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 74¢ $100 189d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 189d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $200 218d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 218d
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 235d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 236d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $23 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.00 · official $133.00 (match) · 182 history records