Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b09…b884
sports · 86 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$11 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$14
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses39 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)79 / 86
History coverage95d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 7 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No 95¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $4 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? May 16 $1 $0 +3%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? May 13 $1 $0 -1%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? May 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 05 $2 $0 -1%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $1 $0 -1%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 02 $2 +$1 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $1 +$1 +72%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) May 02 $1 +$1 +116%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3 $0 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 25 $1 $0 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 19 $1 +$1 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Valentin vs. Julien LeBlanc (Middleweight, Mai Apr 19 $1 +$1 +65%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 01 $3 $0 +14%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 01 $3 $0 +15%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Apr 01 $1 $0 -6%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 01 $1 $0 -7%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +6%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 01 $4 +$11 +278%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Apr 01 $1 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 -13%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 01 $3 −$1 -29%
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $2 −$1 -49%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +19%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 31 $1 $0 +2%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? Mar 29 $3 +$5 +155%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? Mar 24 $3 $0 +2%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $2 $0 -18%
Raptors vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5 Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ducks vs. Senators: O/U 6.5 Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-16.5) Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5 Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Clippers: O/U 235.5 Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bruins vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5 Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
California Golden Bears vs. Florida State Seminoles Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-11.5) Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% −$5
world 19% +$5
other 14% $0
politics 8% +$11
tech 6% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 55m
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $2 2d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 9d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 9d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $0 9d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $0 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 10d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 10d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 10d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $0 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $0 11d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $0 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 11d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $0 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $1 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $1 12d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $0 12d
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $1 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.5% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 58 -16.8% -24.8% 34% 17% -23.5%
all 79 +8.0% -2.3% 49% 37% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 37% -3.0%
10% -11.6% 33% -12.3%
15% -20.2% 32% -20.8%
20% -28.0% 30% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.82 · official $13.82 (match) · 341 history records