Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b08…9077 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -59.2% -63.1% 29% 29% -48.1%
≤30d 46 -26.3% -33.3% 52% 33% -15.5%
≤90d 46 -26.3% -33.3% 52% 33% -15.5%
all 46 -26.3% -33.3% 52% 33% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 33% -15.5%
10% -39.7% 15% -23.6%
15% -45.5% 7% -31.0%
20% -50.9% 4% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage19d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 28 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 28 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 28 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 28 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 28 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 28 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 28 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 28 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 28 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 28 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 28 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 28 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 28 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 28 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 28 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 28 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 28 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 28 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 28 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 28 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 28 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 28 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 28 $5 +$4 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records