Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b03…4153 other 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%25W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$21
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$75
politics 24% −$11
sports 20% −$12
finance 5% −$14
crypto 5% −$7
economics 4% −$3
world 4% −$1
culture 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 63 -0.7% -10.2% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 121 -0.7% -10.2% 16% 0% -10.2%
all 134 -0.7% -10.1% 19% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses25 / 109
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage99d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $161 −$1 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $328 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $57 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $149 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $168 −$2 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $67 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $162 −$3 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 07 $45 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $122 −$3 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $42 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $264 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $160 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $60 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $53 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $704 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $113 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $62 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $148 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $149 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 27 $93 −$3 -3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $58 1m
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 37m
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 4h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 5h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 11h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 11h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 16h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 17h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 24h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $43 25h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $43 31h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $65 31h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $65 37h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $9 38h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $9 43h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $44 44h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $44 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $58 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $59 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $53 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $53 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $44 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.24 · official $58.24 (match) · 458 history records