Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3B 0x3b03…3c79 crypto 1636 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$374 (-4%) realized −$376 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%909W / 726L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$450
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -16.6% -24.6% 47% 47% -24.1%
≤30d 45 -16.6% -24.6% 47% 47% -24.1%
≤90d 1633 -4.3% -13.4% 56% 52% -15.1%
all 1635 -4.1% -13.3% 56% 52% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 52% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 49% -22.5%
15% -29.1% 43% -30.0%
20% -36.1% 35% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$376
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses909 / 726
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1635 / 1636
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1635 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 61¢ 92¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 11 $5 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.61 · official $6.62 (match) · 3500 history records