trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 12¢ | $35 | $41 | +$6 (+17%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | $35 | $31 | −$4 (-12%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $27 | $27 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $27 | $26 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $15 | $15 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Magic | 24¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner | GamerLegion | 11¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B | Team Nemesis | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Magic | 24¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | 76ers | 52¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | Lakers | 13¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 65¢ | 0¢ | $120 | $0 | −$120 (-100%) |
| Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs | Tundra Esports | 10¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | Timberwolves | 23¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Spurs | 55¢ | 0¢ | $166 | $0 | −$166 (-100%) |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 61¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Raptors | 28¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | 76ers | 30¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B | BetBoom Team | 50¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 44¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Spurs (-7.5) | Jun 13 | $10 | −$9 | -98% |
| Spread: Spurs (-5.5) | Jun 13 | $57 | −$56 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 11 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $71 | −$70 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $110 | +$120 | +109% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $54 | −$53 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | May 31 | $121 | −$120 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $70 | +$86 | +123% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $66 | +$46 | +70% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $65 | +$44 | +67% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 26 | $26 | −$25 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 25 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 22 | $168 | −$166 | -99% |
| Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs | May 22 | $57 | −$57 | -99% |
| Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs | May 22 | $40 | +$15 | +37% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 22 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs | May 21 | $26 | −$26 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 21 | $36 | −$35 | -98% |
| Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs | May 20 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner | May 20 | $24 | −$16 | -67% |
| Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs | May 20 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner | May 20 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs | May 19 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 19 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $20 | +$40 | +197% |
| Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs | May 18 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 17 | $17 | −$17 | -99% |
| Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B | May 17 | $9 | +$8 | +93% |
| Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner | May 17 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 | May 17 | $5 | +$9 | +165% |
| Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner | May 16 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B | May 16 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A | May 16 | $20 | +$16 | +79% |
| Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | May 16 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? | May 16 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B | May 16 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A | May 15 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B | May 14 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 14 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 14 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 14 | $31 | +$46 | +152% |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A | May 13 | $10 | −$1 | -14% |
| Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B | May 13 | $20 | −$9 | -44% |
| Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner | May 13 | $10 | +$10 | +98% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 12 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 12 | $30 | +$20 | +65% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 11 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 11 | $31 | +$51 | +165% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | May 11 | $20 | +$12 | +57% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 10 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -58.2% | -62.1% | 20% | 20% | -39.7% |
| ≤30d | 37 | -50.2% | -55.0% | 24% | 24% | -49.9% |
| ≤90d | 161 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 36% | 36% | -26.8% |
| all | 161 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 36% | 36% | -26.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.5% | 36% | -26.8% |
| 10% | -24.5% | 36% | -33.8% |
| 15% | -31.8% | 35% | -40.2% |
| 20% | -38.4% | 33% | -46.0% |