Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b01…263e other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 709d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$253 (-7%) realized +$39 · open −$292
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$246
world 33% −$845
politics 24% +$692
sports 5% +$147
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.9% +13.0% 100% 100% +13.0%
≤30d 1 +24.9% +13.0% 100% 100% +13.0%
≤90d 7 -82.2% -83.9% 14% 14% -4.6%
all 89 -3.9% -13.1% 38% 37% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 37% -7.8%
10% -21.4% 34% -16.6%
15% -29.0% 29% -24.7%
20% -35.9% 29% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$30 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

709d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$292
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage709d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $208 $213 +$5 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $300 $3 −$297 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 20 $171 +$43 +25%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $5 $0 -9%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $2 +$1 +56%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 +$4 +426%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $14 −$3 -21%
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $2 +$4 +176%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 14 $1 +$2 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 14 $1 +$4 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 14 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 14 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 14 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 14 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 14 $1 +$3 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $2 +$5 +258%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $10 +$13 +133%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter Mar 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "UFC" or "World Cup" this week? (March 15) Mar 11 $1 $0 -40%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $24 −$6 -25%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $2 +$4 +207%
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu Mar 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $213 1h
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 72¢ $214 1h
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 72d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 82d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 57¢ $14 84d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 84d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 85d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 57¢ $116 85d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 86d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 86d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 86d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 86d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 86d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 92d
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 93d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 93d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $300 93d
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $11 94d
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $14 94d
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 94d
Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? SELL No 80¢ $6 94d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 97d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 97d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.51 · official $215.51 (match) · 224 history records