Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b00…fcf8
other · 45 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$25 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage466d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 0 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $55 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $8 −$1 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $81 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -20%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $1 $0 -13%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or mo May 21 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru Apr 09 $2 $0 -17%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? Apr 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 05 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 30 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 220 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $43 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 20 $28 +$15 +54%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5? Mar 11 $13 +$15 +117%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'unemployment' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $13 $0 -3%
California vs. Louisville Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Davidson vs. Loyola Chicago Mar 04 $16 −$3 -16%
UT Martin vs. Tennessee Tech Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% +$13
world 32% −$1
politics 16% +$15
sports 11% −$2
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $1 30m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $47 30m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $28 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $22 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $3 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $55 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $55 20h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 24h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $18 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $18 33h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $6 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 -0.7% -10.1% 20% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 15 -0.7% -10.1% 20% 7% -9.9%
all 45 +2.9% -6.9% 36% 7% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 7% -7.6%
10% -15.8% 4% -16.4%
15% -24.0% 4% -24.5%
20% -31.4% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records