Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:03:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3aff…aad8 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$375 (+15%) realized +$689 · open −$314
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$357
7 days+$266
14 days+$266
30 days+$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$217
other 45% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 50% +7.3%
≤30d 20 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 50% +7.3%
≤90d 20 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 50% +7.3%
all 22 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 50% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 50% +0.2%
10% -16.9% 45% -9.4%
15% -24.9% 45% -18.1%
20% -32.3% 36% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$68 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$689
Unrealized−$314
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage148d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings San Francisco Unicorns 79¢ $315 $0 −$314 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 25 $101 +$63 +62%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $61 +$105 +172%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Canada to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 24 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson Jun 24 $37 +$68 +183%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $33 +$53 +162%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 24 $34 +$31 +93%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $68 +$48 +70%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $61 +$22 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $218 +$292 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $183 +$36 +20%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $131 +$52 +40%
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jun 21 $123 −$123 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 06 $299 −$243 -81%
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 28 $123 +$177 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings SELL Texas Super Kings 100¢ $747 1h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY San Francisco Unicorns 79¢ $254 3h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY San Francisco Unicorns 79¢ $63 3h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 25¢ $51 4h
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 4h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 38¢ $19 5h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 38¢ $9 5h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 38¢ $9 5h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 38¢ $10 5h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 38¢ $14 5h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 38¢ $29 5h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 38¢ $21 5h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 38¢ $38 5h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 38¢ $9 5h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 38¢ $13 5h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 38¢ $38 5h
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 6h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 36¢ $20 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $29 10h
Canada to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 43¢ $79 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies $37 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson SELL Tatiana Prozorova 53¢ $105 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Tatiana Prozorova 18¢ $37 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 10¢ $10 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter BUY Storm Hunter 31¢ $33 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Gabriel Diallo 100¢ $166 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry $10 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Gabriel Diallo 30¢ $51 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui SELL Moez Echargui 100¢ $86 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui BUY Moez Echargui 37¢ $33 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 63 history records