Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

3A 0x3afd…0a9a other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$25 (-7%) realized +$12 · open −$37

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$53per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-44.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-38.5%	-44.3%	50%	50%	+0.9%
≤30d	2	-38.5%	-44.3%	50%	50%	+0.9%
≤90d	2	-38.5%	-44.3%	50%	50%	+0.9%
all	2	-38.5%	-44.3%	50%	50%	+0.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.3%	50%	+0.9%
10%	-49.7%	50%	-8.7%
15%	-54.5%	0%	-17.5%
20%	-59.0%	0%	-25.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -38% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$168

Realized+$12

Unrealized−$37

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 7

History coverage6d

Avg bet$53

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$120	$93	−$27 (-22%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$45	$53	+$8 (+19%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$35	$17	−$17 (-50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$97	+$22	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$31	2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A	BUY	15¢	$51	4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$26	6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	81¢	$97	6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.86 · official $167.86 (match) · 19 history records