Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3afd…ccc3 sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$379 (-16%) realized −$379 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$50
14 days−$408
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$391
crypto 2% $0
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.8% -23.9% 45% 41% -21.4%
≤30d 45 -14.5% -22.6% 44% 42% -24.9%
≤90d 48 -9.4% -18.1% 48% 46% -24.4%
all 48 -9.4% -18.1% 48% 46% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 46% -24.4%
10% -25.9% 46% -31.7%
15% -33.1% 38% -38.3%
20% -39.6% 29% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$45 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$379
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 55
History coverage78d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$26 +81%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$4 -60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$4 -52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $17 +$13 +77%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $9 +$8 +93%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 +$12 +76%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $21 −$17 -80%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $16 +$5 +29%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $18 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $20 +$14 +73%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $28 −$24 -84%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $50 −$35 -70%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $36 +$14 +38%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$10 +51%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $22 +$40 +177%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $48 +$132 +276%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $50 +$30 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $101 +$23 +23%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $153 −$116 -76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $136 −$124 -91%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $212 +$100 +47%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $99 −$99 -100%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $99 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $148 +$65 +44%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $51 +$86 +170%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $298 +$132 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 29 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 29 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 29 $5 +$3 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY 8¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 2¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium v BUY 17¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 22h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $14 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Tü BUY 11¢ $5 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 9¢ $7 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 15¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 36¢ $6 27h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 3¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 17¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.81 · official $11.81 · 126 history records