Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3afd…67f8 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$336 (-7%) realized −$336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$7
politics 20% −$3
sports 9% −$328
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -21.1% -28.6% 24% 5% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 5% -17.7%
10% -35.4% 5% -25.6%
15% -41.7% 5% -32.8%
20% -47.4% 5% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$932
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage622d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $612 $612 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $320 $320 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Tigers vs. White Sox Aug 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dashamir Shehi be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 20 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Fulham wins the Premier League? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2025? May 02 $5 $0 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 09 $5 $0 -3%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Utah vs. Flames Jan 03 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Aston Villa lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Dec 30 $110 −$110 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 27 $112 −$112 -100%
Spurs vs. Suns Dec 04 $21 −$21 -100%
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner Oct 16 $21 +$12 +59%
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3 Oct 07 $24 +$15 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $320 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $612 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $500 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $538 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $501 4h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $539 4h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,038 4h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,039 16h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,035 16h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,036 22h
Tigers vs. White Sox BUY White Sox 45¢ $6 308d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 359d
Will Dashamir Shehi be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 400d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 400d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 400d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? SELL No 68¢ $4 401d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 69¢ $4 402d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 405d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 406d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 406d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 407d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 407d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 409d
Will France win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 92¢ $5 411d
Will France win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 412d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 413d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 414d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 99¢ $5 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $931.53 · official $931.53 (match) · 83 history records