Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3afb…0f72 politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$3
politics 29% $0
other 9% $0
culture 8% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +20.5% +9.0% 100% 100% +9.0%
≤30d 7 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 14% -8.7%
≤90d 7 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 14% -8.7%
all 34 +0.4% -9.2% 26% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage273d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $41 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $11 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $80 +$5 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $55 −$5 -9%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 10 $2 $0 -12%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $17 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Oct 02 $15 $0 +2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 28 $1 $0 +10%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 28 $2 $0 -4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on Sep 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $16 $0 -1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $42 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $47 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $47 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $10 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $10 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $35 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $49 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $50 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $43 24d
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $14 250d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 250d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $17 251d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $17 251d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 251d
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? SELL No 97¢ $7 251d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 251d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $11 251d
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $7 251d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.34 · official $50.34 (match) · 101 history records