Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:13:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3afb…9df8
crypto · 58 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses27 / 28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 3 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 19¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Vinicius Jr. score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$6 +588%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +49%
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 54% −$7
other 37% −$1
world 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 28m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 44m
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $11 46m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $6 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -8.2% -16.9% 49% 31% -11.8%
≤30d 55 -8.2% -16.9% 49% 31% -11.8%
≤90d 55 -8.2% -16.9% 49% 31% -11.8%
all 55 -8.2% -16.9% 49% 31% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 31% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 27% -20.3%
15% -32.2% 24% -28.0%
20% -38.8% 15% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.03 · official $10.03 (match) · 144 history records