Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3afb…0004 sports 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,900 (-9%) realized −$2,990 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%144W / 142L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day130.2pace
Fees−$414est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$1,733
other 8% +$64
world 6% −$48
finance 4% +$135
politics 4% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +5.1% -4.9% 58% 54% +0.4%
≤30d 286 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 47% -3.2%
≤90d 286 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 47% -3.2%
all 286 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 47% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 47% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 42% -12.5%
15% -21.6% 37% -21.0%
20% -29.3% 30% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$53 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$2,953
Realized−$2,990
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses144 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$414
Open positions20
Markets (closed)286 / 305
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$102
Trades / day130.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 87¢ 99¢ $875 $986 +$112 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $531 $509 −$22 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $364 $395 +$31 (+9%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 87¢ $300 $315 +$15 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 99¢ $150 $160 +$10 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 80¢ 95¢ $117 $139 +$22 (+19%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $74 $89 +$15 (+20%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 80¢ $37 $85 +$48 (+130%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $66 $63 −$3 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $27 $32 +$5 (+18%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $130 $1 −$129 (-100%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$4 +117%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $455 −$7 -2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $400 +$39 +10%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $124 +$29 +24%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +456%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 −$3 -12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$4 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $201 −$36 -18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$1 +40%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $3 +$4 +140%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 +$56 +188%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$5 +262%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $203 +$27 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$1 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 90¢ $154 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $439 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 34¢ $105 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $150 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $41 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $150 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 47¢ $1 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 43¢ $1 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 46¢ $1 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 61¢ $2 4h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 61¢ $2 4h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 4h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $22 4h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 4h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $58 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $12 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $87 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $19 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 64¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 64¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,953.20 · official $2,953.20 (match) · 3500 history records